Sunday, March 24, 2013

Could America Become Cyprus?

One of the problem with Cyprus is that its banking sector is just too big. GDP is variously reported as rangin from $20 billion to $23 billion, with total deposits being anywhere from 240% of GDP all the way up to 500%. What this means is that Cyprus just isn't big enough to bail out the financial sector.

So what about us? The 2012 GDP was estimated to be about $15.8 trillion. And deposits? A bit under $11 trillion, if this web site is to be trusted. So we're at roughly 70% of GDP.

We have a different problem, with too many deposits being concentrated among the top four banks. Here's a list of the top twenty.
Rank
Total Deposits
Bank Name
1
$1,246,327,000,000
2
$1,117,622,296,000
3
$994,439,000,000
4
$941,185,000,000
5
$253,686,214,000
6
$239,447,000,000
7
$216,743,265,000
8
$191,737,996,000
9
$169,790,817,000
10
$168,552,949,000
11
$136,567,968,000
12
$133,278,697,000
13
$127,864,714,000
14
$117,448,587,000
15
$96,588,183,000
16
$93,278,271,000
17
$83,134,216,000
18
$80,349,888,000
19
$79,442,000,000
20
$75,097,058,000
Each of JPMorgan and Bank of America have more than 10% of the total deposit base, and Wells Fargo and Citibank aren't far behind. Then there's a $700 billion drop down to U.S. Bank, and a tapering off from there.

To put this into perspective, if the roughly $4 trillion -- roughy 40% of all deposits -- held by the top four banks were transferred to banks no bigger than U.S. Bank, you would need at least sixteen of them, of four per bank.

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