Wednesday, May 9, 2012

In Which We Take a Victory Lap in Regards to Our Stimulus Plan

But, ultimately, are swept up with melancholia.

From an earlier post:

Let’s start with compensatory aid for the states. State (and cities) typically have a much worse time during a recession than the federal government because they (a) can’t print their own money and (b) have to balance their budgets. So when revenues decrease, states have few options save for trimming their own expenditures. 
Calculated Risk, an economics blogs, says that we’ve lost 232,000 state and city jobs so far this year. And in California, things look like they’re going to get worse. From the Huffington Post
Because revenue is projected to fall short by more than $2 billion, the state could cut public school funding by up to $1.4 billion, though that amount will have to be determined by Brown's finance director. Besides laying off school staff, cutting expenses and dipping into reserves, the state could allow school districts to reduce the school year by up to seven days, from 175 to 168. California had 180 school days before the recession hit.

 California's unemployment rate – under 5 percent as recently as 2006 – has remained above 11 percent for more than two years.... It projects California's jobless rate will remain above 10 percent through the middle of 2014 and above 8 percent through 2017.
In short, direct aid to the states is a very efficient form of stimulus because it can prevent exactly the kinds of lay-offs and cut-backs that California is facing. Also, according to the Congressional Budget Office, they also have a relatively high multiplier effect – somewhere between 0.7 and 1.8.
Now, from the notorious pinko rag the Wall Street Journal:
One reason the unemployment rate may have remained persistently high: The sharp cuts in state and local government spending in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the layoffs those cuts wrought. 
... 
The unemployment rate would be far lower if it hadn’t been for those cuts: If there were as many people working in government as there were in December 2008, the unemployment rate in April would have been 7.1%, not 8.1%.
From TPM.


Friday, May 4, 2012

Um ....

From Zero Hedge:

It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000.  This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.


If anybody thinks another stimulus package might be warranted, you can find our suggestion here.

Just sayin'.

Edward Conard is a Douche, Part Two

Remember this story from last year?

How's this for an example of just how porous the U.S. campaign finance system is? A recently created company made a $1 million donation to a pro-Mitt Romney political action committee, then went out of business, leaving no fingerprints from the money's donor. Michael Isikoff of NBC News reports on this fascinating example in an investigative piece. 
An excerpt: 
The company, W Spann LLC, was formed in March by a Boston lawyer who specializes in estate tax planning for "high net worth individuals," according to corporate records and the lawyer's bio on her firm's website. 
The corporate records provide no information about the owner of the firm, its address or its type of business.
Six weeks later, W Spann LLC made its million-dollar donation to Restore Our Future — a new so-called "super PAC" started by a group of former Romney political aides to boost the former Massachusetts governor's presidential bid. It listed its address as being in a midtown Manhattan office building that has no record of such a tenant.
... 
Isikoff writes that the contribution is the fruit of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision: 
Campaign finance experts say the use of an opaque company like W Spann to donate large sums of money into a political campaign shows how post-Watergate disclosure laws are now being increasingly circumvented. 
Much of this, the experts say, is because of last year's Supreme Court ruling in the Citizens United case that allowed corporations to spend unlimited amounts on political advocacy, including giving to supposedly "independent" super PACs like Restore Our Future. That ruling also opened the door for newly created nonprofit groups — such as Crossroads GPS, started by Karl Rove — that spent tens of millions of dollars on attack ads during last year's campaign without disclosing any donors. 
Well ...
The anonymous donor behind the headline-making $1 million contribution to a pro-Mitt Romney super PAC is a former Bain Capital official with long ties to the candidate, who's asking the outside group to amend its filings, POLITICO has learned. 
The check-writer is Ed Conard, who was a top official at Bain, the private-equity firm Romney helped create, and who has been a strong supporter of his over the years.

The donation, made to the super PAC "Restore Our Future" - which was founded by former Romney advisers and is able to take in unlimited contributions, but must report them to the FEC - showed up in the group's first round of filings. It was listed as coming from a W Spann LLC. 
In a statement to POLITICO, Conard said, "I am the individual who formed and funded W Spann LLC. I authorized W Spann LLC’s contribution to Restore Our Future PAC. 

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Edward Conard is a Douche

The New York Times is running an article by Adam Davidson entitled The Purpose of Spectacular Wealth, According to a Spectacularly Wealthy Guy, which addresses arguments around inequality put forth by Edward Conard of Bain Capital.

Conard understands that many believe that the U.S. economy currently serves the rich at the expense of everyone else. He contends that this is largely because most Americans don’t know how the economy really works — that the superrich spend only a small portion of their wealth on personal comforts; most of their money is invested in productive businesses that make life better for everyone. “Most citizens are consumers, not investors,” he told me during one of our long, occasionally contentious conversations. “They don’t recognize the benefits to consumers that come from investment.” 
This is the usual defense of the 1 percent. Conard, however, has laid out a tightly argued case for just how much consumers actually benefit from the wealthy. 

Davidson then goes to completely avoid that tightly argued case, perhaps because it doesn't exist. Davidson does retell a story about how investment and innovation in computers has made them affordable to nearly everyone. And he even gets known pinko Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research to acknowledge this is a true.

Baker estimates the ratio is 5 to 1, meaning that for every dollar an investor earns, the public receives the equivalent of $5 of value. 
Wow, that's pretty good!

So what's the problem? It has to do with what qualifies as an investment. Providing start-up capital to a new business, or additional capital to an already existing company, is an investment. Buying stock in the secondary market -- what most investors think of investing -- is not. It's gambling.

As we wrote here:

Unless you're involved in a public offering, all of the securities you've purchased have been in the secondary market. This means that not one dollar of the purchase price you paid went to the issuer. Instead, all of the purchase price went to someone who purchased those securities before you. You've made a bet that the security will rise in price and, if you're right, you'll win! But you won't owe taxes on gambling winnings -- which are taxed as regular income. Instead, these winnings are classified as capital gains, and taxed at a much lower rate.
Here is another example of how the tax code works to the betterment of the 1%. Capital gains (and their preferential tax treatment) are very much skewed towards the wealthy. In fact, in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007 (the last year for which data is available), more than 10% of all of the capital gains in the country went to just 400 tax payers.  
And those 400 returns represents those filed by the the top 0.00026%. Not the top 1%, but the top 0.026% of the top 1%. The remaining 90% of capital gains is filtered down to the 99.99974% of us.
Except that it doesn't. The top 0.1% ends up with nearly half of all capital gains, so that leaves 50% for the 99.9% of us.  
And all of that is taxed at 15%, the same tax rate which would kick in at $17,000 if you actually worked at a job. So if you made $8.50 an hour (and worked a forty hour week, fifty weeks a year), you'd be taxed at exactly the same rate which applies to the gambling winnings of the nation's wealthiest individuals.  
But it's actually worse than that, because we haven't figured in Social Security and Medicare taxes. As we noted in our discussion of Social Security,  capital gains are currently excluded from Social Security (usually 6.2%, but currently 4.2%) and Medicare (1.45%) taxation, So that's an additional 5.65%. 
This means that the lowest combined tax rate applicable to working stiffs -- 15.65% - will always be higher than the combined tax rate -- 15% -- applicable to the gambling winnings of the well-off. Always.
And it's not like Conard is an investor, at least in his professional capacity at Bain Capital. As we discussed here, private equity firms like Bain Capital are merely the leverage buy-out firms of the '80s with a makeover. Josh Kosman explained to Mike Konzal:
JK: The whole industry started in the mid-to-late 1970s. The original leveraged buyout firms saw that there were no laws against companies taking out loans to finance their own sales, like a mortgage. So when a private equity firms buys a company and puts 20 percent down, and the company puts down 80 percent, the company is responsible for repaying that. 
Now the tax angle is that the company can take the interest it pays on its loans off of taxes. That reduces the tax rate of companies after they are acquired in LBOs by about half. Banks, also realizing this tax effect, were willing to finance these deals. At the time, you could also depreciate the assets of the company you were buying — that’s not true today. 
They saw that you could buy a company through a leveraged buyout and radically reduce its tax rate. The company then could use those savings to pay off the increase in its debt loads. For every dollar that the company paid off in debt, your equity value rises by that same dollar, as long as the value of the company remains the same. 
MK: So the business model is based on a capital structure and tax arbitrage? 
JK: Yes. It’s a transfer of wealth as well. It’s taking the wealth of the company and transferring it to the private equity firm, as long as it can pay down its debt.  
James Surowiecki of the New Yorker noted:
The rewards can be extraordinary: when Romney was at Bain, it supposedly earned eighty-eight per cent a year for its investors. But piles of debt also increase the risk that companies will go bust. 
And:
[B]etween 2003 and 2007 private-equity funds took more than seventy billion dollars out of their companies. These dividends created no economic value—they just redistributed money from the company to the private-equity investors.
Spectacular.


Tuesday, May 1, 2012

How to Make 30-40% More Right Now!

First, get a time machine. Then, travel back to the late '70s. Finally, prevent the benefits from increases in productivity from going mostly to capital instead of labor (to, in labor, to the top earners instead of the middle).

Paul Krugman explains.

Larry Mishel has a systematic breakdown of the reasons for worker income stagnation since 1973. He starts with the familiar divergence: productivity up 80 percent, the compensation (including benefits) of the median worker up only 11 percent. Where did the productivity go? 
The answer is, it’s two-thirds the inequality, stupid. One third of the difference is due to a technical issue involving price indexes. The rest, however, reflects a shift of income from labor to capital and, within that, a shift of labor income to the top and away from the middle. 
What this says is that widening inequality makes a huge difference. Income stagnation does not reflect overall economic stagnation; the incomes of typical workers would be 30 or 40 percent higher than they are if inequality hadn’t soared.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Raise Social Security Benefits

Atrios proposes it. Political Animal seconds it. And all because Joe Nocera is screwed.
My 60th birthday is less than a week and a half away, and if there is one thing I can say with certainty it’s that 60 is not the new 50. 
My body creaks and groans. My eyes aren’t what they used to be. I don’t sleep as soundly as I did just a few years ago. Lately, I’ve been seeing a lot of doctors, just to make sure everything still more or less works. 
I’ve also found myself with a sudden urge to get my house in order — just, you know, in case. Insurance, wills, that sort of thing. Sixty is when you stop pretending you’re going to live forever. You’re officially old. Or at least old-ish. 
The only thing I haven’t dealt with on my to-do checklist is retirement planning. The reason is simple: I’m not planning to retire. More accurately, I can’t retire. My 401(k) plan, which was supposed to take care of my retirement, is in tatters.

Last year, CNN reported that:

A quarter of middle-class Americans are now so pessimistic about their savings that they are planning to delay retirement until they are at least 80 years old -- two years longer than the average person is even expected to live.   
It sounds depressing, but for many it's a necessity. On average, Americans have only saved a mere 7% of the retirement nest egg they were hoping to build, according to Wells Fargo's latest retirement survey that polled 1,500 middle-class Americans.  
While respondents (whose ages ranged from 20 to 80) had median savings of only $25,000, their median retirement savings goal was $350,000. And 30% of people in their 60s -- right around the traditional retirement age of 65 -- that were surveyed had saved less than $25,000 for retirement.
But, as we discussed here,  we can "save" Social Security very easily -- mostly because it's not really in trouble. If we remove the cap on earned income subject to Social Security taxes -- currently set at $106,800 -- we would add about 0.6% worth of GDP back into Social Security. And the expected shortfall is expected to be about 0.6%. It's that easy.

But how could we raise enough money to increase Social Security benefits? We quote ourselves:

The magic words are “unearned income.” The 1% have pulled off a brilliant con over last 30 years, where they’ve been able to convince the government that unearned income – the kind that comes from capital gains, dividends and interest – should not be subject to the kind of taxation that the rest of us face. In terms of income tax, long term capital gains are taxed at 15%, far below the current maximum marginal rate of 35%
But it gets worse in terms of Social Security, because these things have ... never been taxed at all.  
In 2009, the IRS reported that there was nearly $7.7 trillion in income, $5.7 of which was salaries and wages. Now, just because something isn't salaries and wages does not necessarily mean it would qualify as "unearned income," but it does give us a sense of scale. If only half of it was -- $1 trillion -- then applying the 2009 employee Social Security rate of 6.2% would yield an additional $60.2 billion in revenue. 
And all of this increase would be on income -- literally -- that no one worked for.
In 2009, the average Social Security benefit was $1,153 per month (and the maximum was $2,323), and Social Security paid out a total of $686 billion in benefits. So if we were to raise Social Security benefits by 10% -- to a whopping $1268 a month (and a maximum of $2555) -- we'd need another $68.6 billion. As shown above, if we could tax half of unearned income, we'd come up with nearly 90% of that figure. We could probably make up the rest by not invading Iran.

By the way -- ever wonder how much is in the Social Security Trust Fund? It's $2.5 trillion. As the current national debt is about $15.6 trillion, that means that about 16% of our national debt is financed internally, in the form of a special series of Treasury bonds held by the Trust Fund.


Congress Kills No Birds with Two Stones

Kevin Drum notes that the Senate (but not the House) has passed legislation to save the Post Office. As we discussed here, the Post Office is fighting a losing battle against e-mail, so much so that first-class mail now makes up less than 30% of all mail delivered. (The rest -- mostly catalogs and the like -- is sent via standard mail.)


The USPS had suggested a series of sensible changes -- ending Saturday delivery, relaxing delivery times (40% of first-class mail is delivered within one day), and closing a bunch of post offices and postal centers.


We also noted that much of the current "crisis" is fake, as the USPS was forced by (the Republican-controlled) Congress to pre-fund 75 years worth of its employee benefits within a 10-year window. That helped turn the USPS' $1 billion surplus in 2006 into a $5 billion deficit in 2007.


So how did the Senate do? Kevin Drum summarizes (and we editorialize):



Allows USPS to recoup more than $11 billion that it had overpaid into one of its pension funds. 

About time.
Provides early retirement incentives for nearly 100,000 USPS workers.

Good one.
Restructures payments to a health benefits fund for future retirees.

Probably a good thing.
Frees up USPS to offer a broader range of services like delivering beer and wine for retailers.

Okay – but we could do more.
Creates a USPS chief innovation officer.

Absolutely pointless.
Halts the immediate closing of up to 252 mail-processing centers and 3,700 post offices.

Not good.
Forces USPS to preserve overnight delivery of mail sent to nearby communities.

More not good.
Forbids USPS from closing a rural post office unless the next-nearest location is no more than 10 miles away.

Still  more not good.
Places a one-year moratorium on closing rural post offices and then requires the mail agency to take rural issues into special consideration.

Oh, Christ.
Prevents USPS from cutting Saturday delivery for two years, until the agency can prove such a cut is needed as a "last resort."

Seriously?
Transitions from door-to-door delivery to curbside delivery in some areas, such as suburban neighborhoods.

Meh.
Strengthens the appeals process for customers opposed to closing a post office.

Bleh.
Caps bonuses and pay for USPS executives.

Pointless.
Forces USPS to wait until after Election Day to close postal facilities in states that permit voting by mail.

Apparently, these states don’t have mailboxes.
Permits USPS to co-locate post offices in government-owned buildings.
Good.



So, Kevin, what do you think?
There's nothing in there about allowing the postal service to increase postal rates
This is crazy. 
Take a look at countries around the world that have smaller volumes of mail than us: they all charge higher postage rates. They have to. And as volumes keep declining in America, we're going to need higher rates here too. Right now, a first-class equivalent stamp runs 75¢ in Germany, 72¢ in Britain, 82¢ in France, 98¢ in Switzerland, 97¢ in Belgium, and 63¢ in the Netherlands. There's no way that we can stay at 45¢ as volumes decline and pretend that somehow everything will be hunky-dory. 
Agreed.



And the Senate also failed to consider resurrecting the United States Postal Savings System, which was shut down during the patchouli-scented days of 1967, when we all thought the banking system was safe. Not only would the United States Postal Savings System provide another revenue stream, it would require virtually no start-up costs -- the USPS already engages on certain small-scale financial transactions (money orders) and the post offices themselves are already built and fully staffed.

A revived Unites States Postal System would also provide crucial financial services to a population which increasingly can't afford to use banks. An April 2011 study by the Pew Charitable Trust found 16.4% of all Mississippians didn't have a bank. And it's about to get a lot worse.

The New York Times reports that:

An increasing number of the nation’s large banks — U.S. Bank, Regions Financial and Wells Fargo among them — are aggressively courting low-income customers ... with alternative products that can carry high fees. They are rapidly expanding these offerings partly because the products were largely untouched by recent financial regulations, and also to recoup the billions in lost income from recent limits on debit and credit card fees. 
Banks say that they are offering a valuable service for customers who might not otherwise have access to traditional banking and that they can offer these products at competitive prices. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a new federal agency, said it was examining whether banks ran afoul of consumer protection laws in the marketing of these products. 
In the push for these customers, banks often have an advantage over payday loan companies and other storefront lenders because, even though banks are regulated, they typically are not subject to interest rate limits on payday loans and other alternative products.
For example:
When David Wegner went looking for a checking account in January, he was peppered with offers for low-end financial products, including a prepaid debit card with numerous fees, a short-term emergency loan with steep charges, money wire services and check-cashing options. 
“I may as well have gone to a payday lender,” said Mr. Wegner, a 36-year-old nursing assistant in Minneapolis, who ended up choosing a local branch of U.S. Bank and avoided the payday lenders, pawnshops and check cashers lining his neighborhood. 
Along with a checking account, he selected a $1,000 short-term loan to help pay for his cystic fibrosis medications. The loan cost him $100 in fees, and that will escalate if it goes unpaid. 
And it gets worse:
 Lenders are also joining the prepaid card market. In 2009, consumers held about $29 billion in prepaid cards, according to the Mercator Advisory Group, a payments industry research group. By the end of 2013, the market is expected to reach $90 billion. A big lure for banks is that prepaid cards are not restricted by Dodd-Frank financial regulation law. That exemption means that banks are able to charge high fees when a consumer swipes a prepaid card. 
The companies distributing the cards have drawn criticism for not clearly disclosing fees that can include a charge to activate the card, load money on it and even to call customer service. Customers with a “convenient cash” prepaid card from U.S. Bank, for example, pay a $3 fee to enroll, a $3 monthly maintenance fee, $3 to visit a bank teller and $15 dollars to replace a lost card. 
Capital One charges prepaid card users $1.95 for using an A.T.M. more than once a month, while Wells Fargo charges $1 to speak to a customer service agent more than twice a month.
Banks are evil. The Post Office is not. For more on why the United States Postal Savings System is a good idea, check out our earlier post here.